E-Commerce Peak: What to Expect for Christmas 2026

Peak season is almost upon us. Many shoppers are already researching their gifts. By the time Black Friday deals go live, most will have already made their decisions. We have had a look at what the research says about UK shoppers and Christmas 2026, and what it means for how online sellers can prepare.

How Much Will Shoppers Spend in the Run-Up to Christmas 2026?

UK Christmas gift spending held steady in 2025, rising to £374 per shopper from £357 the year before, as households were determined to have a better Christmas than 2024 despite continuing inflation (Mintel). Black Friday played a significant role, with 72% of shoppers buying gifts during Black Friday promotions, making November the most important month for festive spending.

Black Friday itself was more mixed than the run-up suggested. Nationwide recorded 11.9 million transactions on the day, just under its forecast, while NIQ found tech and durables sales fell year on year, the first such decline across nearly all categories. Shoppers wanted to buy, but did not always find the value they were after.

Looking ahead to 2026, Salsify’s research reveals that 26% of UK shoppers plan to spend more than last year, with 51% expecting to spend about the same. One estimate puts total Christmas spending, not gifts alone, at £500 to £520 per person. November again looks set to be when the big decisions, and most transactions, take place.

What Types of Gifts Will People Be Looking for in 2026?

This year, comfort looks set to be a major influence on gift-buying as much as celebration. Research mentions the trend for “Doom Spending”, when stressful news drives demand for cosy, reassuring gifts such as home decor and nostalgic, familiar present ideas.

Shoppers are also buying fewer gifts, with more consideration going into each one. Versatility, longevity and thoughtfulness are increasingly valued over novelty, with growing interest in personalised items, and gifts from independent brands that will be kept rather than passed to a charity shop in January. People are also a lot more open to buying and receiving second-hand or refurbished gifts in 2026. Finally, pets have earned a firm place on the list, with several retailers now treating them as household members who deserve something to unwrap!

How Will Shoppers Choose Who to Buy From This Festive Season?

This year there are more factors influencing buyer choice than ever. Shoppers move between social media, marketplaces, in-store browsing, group chats and reviews before deciding where to buy. Around two-thirds plan to “webroom” this year, researching online before buying in store, while just over half plan to “showroom”, which is the reverse.

Delivery and returns offers make a real difference in who shoppers choose to buy from. UK research from Ingrid found that 82% of shoppers have reconsidered a purchase over unexpected delivery costs, and 65% say loyalty can be won or lost on delivery alone. A clear returns policy matters as much as the offer, and free or guaranteed delivery are an effective way to win repeat custom.

Is AI Going to Be Ordering for Us This Year?

Artificial intelligence is edging into holiday shopping, though it is not yet doing the ordering for most people. UK research suggests around 59% of shoppers have already used AI somewhere in their shopping journey, with adoption highest among younger shoppers. Checkout.com found that close to half of UK shoppers plan to use an AI agent for Christmas shopping this year, though most are using it for inspiration, gift ideas and shortlists rather than handing over the purchase itself. Around seven in ten Millennials feel comfortable letting AI buy on their behalf, compared with a quarter of shoppers over 55. Concerns about losing control over purchases, and a lack of transparency in how AI decides, remain the main factors holding people back from handing over the shopping task entirely. We also read about one shopper who gave AI a budget and his credit card details and asked it to buy a surprise present for himself. It made quite a good choice! (Eliot Prince)

As an e-commerce seller, the most important thing is to ensure you have clear, accurate and full product information on your site, since that is what both your human and AI customers will be looking for and using to compare you to competitors.

Christmas Packaging Supplies for E Commerce Sellers

How Can E-Commerce Sellers Get Ready?

With key decisions increasingly made in November, hopefully your preparation for the season ahead is already underway. Just in case you are falling behind, here are some practical tasks to make sure you have on your list:

Update your customer lists across email, Google Ads and Social Ads, so you are reaching everyone who has given you permission to market to them.
Get your product and collection pages in order, with gifting collections ready, Black Friday offers set up in advance, and clear shipping and returns information.
Plan your social media content for the season, including gift guides and video for platforms such as Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. Watch which channels your audience is engaging with, such as TikTok Shop, and consider working with niche influencers to extend your reach.
Make sure you have everything you need for your despatch and packaging, from Integrated Labels to protective packaging such as Flexi-Hex®, enough to help you cope with a sudden rise in order volume without slowing despatch down.

The businesses that do well at peak tend to be the ones that are most useful to their customers at the moment they need it, whether that is through sending a well-timed email, curating and sharing a clear gift guide or simply having stock that can be delivered right away.

At Forms Plus, we have been helping sellers through Christmas for 45 years. If you have any questions or would like any help putting an order for labels or packaging together, do get in touch.

View Our Christmas Packaging Solutions Page

Preparing for Peak 2026: Five Shifts in Christmas Shopping Every Online Seller Should Know About